The Atlantic basin is having its quietest hurricane season in the satellite era. No hurricanes had formed by mid-September 2026 — normally the height of the season — and the National Hurricane Center says none are likely for at least another week. Only five weak, short-lived tropical storms have spun up all year.

The reason is a powerful El Nino, the natural warming of equatorial Pacific waters that reshapes weather worldwide. Meteorologists describe a 'triple whammy' hitting the Atlantic: record-strong wind shear that tears developing storms apart, dry air that starves them, and sinking air that suppresses formation. University at Albany professor Kristen Corbosiero noted the wind shear in the main storm corridor between Africa and the Caribbean is roughly 45 mph above what a tropical cyclone can survive — a level she called unheard of.

The numbers back up the hype. According to Colorado State University's Phil Klotzbach, overall Atlantic storm activity sits at just 7% of normal for this point in the season, a post-1950 record low. Remarkably, this has all happened despite record-hot ocean temperatures that would normally fuel storms — a sign of just how dominant El Nino's influence is right now.

The catch: a quiet start means nothing. Experts point to 1992, when a slow season opened with devastating Hurricane Andrew. And the Gulf of Mexico — where storms tend to form later — has escaped the worst of the wind shear, so strong late-season hurricanes there remain possible.

There's a flip side for Pacific travellers. While the Atlantic sleeps, the eastern Pacific is nearly twice as active as normal, with 16 named storms, and the central Pacific is running about 40% above normal. Hawaii has already been hit twice, since El Nino tends to steer storms further west.

Why it matters for travellers: anyone with autumn trips booked to the Caribbean, US Gulf Coast or Hawaii should stay weather-aware. The Caribbean and Atlantic are unusually low-risk right now, but Hawaii and the Pacific islands carry a heightened threat this year, and one storm is all it takes anywhere. Also worth noting: MIT's Kerry Emanuel warns that warm Atlantic waters will linger as El Nino fades, raising the odds of a very busy season next year — something to factor into 2027 trip planning.

Story via Japan Today / Associated Press.