Los Cabos has had a rough 2026. International air arrivals — the visitors who matter most to Mexico's beach resorts, since they spend over US$1,300 each per trip — dropped every month this year. In Los Cabos the declines accelerated from 7.1% in March to 16.6% in July, leaving international tourism down 7.2% for the first seven months. Bookings from the U.S., which supplies two of every three international passengers to Mexico, are down 13% for the next six months.

But the picture isn't all gloomy, and for travellers it actually creates opportunity.

Mexican visitors are coming back. After ten straight months of decline, domestic arrivals turned positive in May and jumped 7% in July, with nearly 20,000 more Mexican nationals visiting than in July 2025. Forward bookings from Mexico City are up more than 9% through the end of the year. One big draw is price: summer rates in Cabo San Lucas averaged around US$336 a night versus the April high-season peak of roughly US$470.

Canada is quietly growing too. Canadian arrivals are up 8.8% in 2026, and so are visitors from Europe, the Caribbean, and Central and South America. With over two million Americans visiting last year against just 215,000 Canadians, this diversification won't fully offset a U.S. slump — but it's a healthier mix for the local economy.

The cruise boom is the biggest story. Cabo San Lucas topped one million cruise passengers for the first time in 2025, and 2026 is shattering that record: 789,919 passengers arrived in the first six months, up 64.5% year on year. At this pace, the year will finish above 1.5 million, keeping Los Cabos firmly Mexico's fourth-largest cruise port behind Cozumel, Mahahual and Ensenada. Cruise passengers spend far less — under US$100 each on average — but that spending keeps downtown Cabo San Lucas businesses busy.

Flight routes have shifted as well. Rising fuel costs and soft demand killed several U.S. routes this year, including Southwest flights from Baltimore, Chicago and Indianapolis and a Delta route from Seattle. In their place, Southwest launched its first nonstop from Las Vegas in early June, and Volaris added a new domestic link from Puebla. Once high season resumes this autumn, expanded service is planned from Volaris, American, Southwest, United, Air Transat, Porter and WestJet.

Why it matters for travellers: if you've been waiting for a good-value year in Los Cabos, this is it. Softer U.S. demand means hotels and airlines are competing harder, especially outside peak season. Canadians, Europeans and Latin American visitors will find plenty of company and healthy flight options, and anyone flying in from Las Vegas or Puebla has a brand-new nonstop to use. For Mexican travellers, Cabo is once again firmly on the map as a domestic favourite.