Ecuador is being described as ground zero for the next El Niño, and the numbers coming out of Wall Street are grim. Goldman Sachs analysed the likely fallout across Latin America and concluded that Ecuador will suffer the biggest social and financial losses in the region, forecasting a GDP contraction of 1.85 points in 2027 — with a warning that the real figure could be worse. The UN-affiliated ECLAC went further, projecting a 4.4 percent hit, while Ecuador's own Central Bank is sitting on a far rosier 1.4 percent estimate.
What does that mean on the ground? Months of coastal flooding that could displace thousands of people and damage roads, ports and property along the Pacific coast. The population living in vulnerable low-lying areas has nearly doubled since the catastrophic 1997-98 El Niño, so far more homes and businesses now sit in harm's way. Meanwhile, in the Andean sierra, drought conditions threaten the hydro-dependent power grid. Goldman Sachs pulled no punches here, criticising the government for failing to add generation capacity after the 2024 blackouts, even as consumer demand has grown 25 percent since then.
Not everyone in the region loses. Brazil is expected to see flooding-related losses of around 1.21 points, but Argentina may actually come out ahead, with forecast growth of 2.57 percent as its farmers pick up export business while competitors struggle.
Local experts are sceptical of official optimism. Former Central Bank vice president Jorge Iglesias told Quito radio that the government's 1.4 percent figure is "much too optimistic", pointing out that early indicators suggest this El Niño could be stronger than the 1997-98 event, which ultimately cost the economy 14.5 percent of GDP — far beyond the 5 percent initially projected — and helped trigger a banking crisis two years later.
For travellers, the takeaway is practical rather than alarming. If Ecuador is on your list — the Galápagos, Guayaquil, the southern coast around Salinas and Montañita, or Cuenca and Quito in the highlands — timing and flexibility matter more than usual. Coastal itineraries face the highest disruption risk, and highland cities could see power cuts if drought squeezes hydroelectric supply. Anyone with trips planned over the next couple of years should keep an eye on official El Niño updates, build buffer time into connections, and consider travel insurance that covers weather-related disruption. Ecuador remains a rewarding destination; this is a story about going prepared, not staying away.
