Cheap flight hunters may find the pickings thinner this winter. American Airlines, United and Southwest have all signalled they will trim planned flying after jet fuel prices jumped, with the changes hitting schedules from late 2026 and possibly into 2027.
The trigger is a sharp rise in fuel costs. The global average jet fuel price climbed 6.1% in a single week to $181.46 per barrel, according to IATA. American's CFO Devon May told the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference that fuel is now running about $1 per gallon above what the airline forecast in July — enough to add roughly $1 billion to its fuel bill for the fourth quarter alone. The carrier is planning capacity adjustments towards the end of the quarter, even as it expects third-quarter revenue to grow 16-19% year on year.
United's CFO Michael Leskinen was blunter: some December flights the airline expected to operate simply won't fly. If fuel stays high, more cuts could follow into the first quarter of 2027. United hasn't named the affected routes, but Leskinen noted that routes with the thinnest margins become unprofitable first when fuel spikes. Southwest, meanwhile, has halved the modest capacity growth it had pencilled in for 2026, though it later stressed the actual schedule changes so far have been minimal.
For travellers, the pattern is predictable: the flights most at risk are the cheap ones. Off-peak Tuesday and Saturday services, dawn departures and late-night red-eyes tend to run on lower margins, making them the first to go when costs bite. That squeezes budget-conscious flyers at a bad time — Spirit Airlines ceased operations in May, and other low-cost carriers are chasing passengers willing to pay for premium extras rather than racing to the bottom on fares.
What's keeping prices from jumping immediately is demand. United described its fourth-quarter bookings as "tremendously strong", spanning premium, corporate and economy, with little sign of demand weakening. Strong demand plus reduced supply, though, is rarely a recipe for bargain hunting — so anyone hoping for cheap winter fares should book sooner rather than later.
The fuel problem isn't uniquely American. The price surge is global, and European carriers face the same pressures, partly softened by fuel hedging arrangements that lock in some future supply at fixed prices. But European airlines are also juggling fleet renewal costs, sustainable aviation fuel mandates and aircraft delivery delays that keep older, thirstier planes in service longer. Higher fuel costs don't automatically mean higher fares — ticket prices ultimately hinge on supply and demand — but with both sides of the Atlantic watching capacity, the direction of travel for cheap seats looks clear if fuel stays elevated.
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