Toronto is squeezing the last drops out of summer. With fall officially days away, The Weather Network's 14-day forecast has the city hitting 21°C on Friday (humidity will make it feel like 22°C), dipping to 18°C on Saturday, then bouncing right back to 21°C on Sunday. After that, the 20-degree days look done for a while.
Monday opens the new week at just 17°C, with overnight lows around 11°C, and Tuesday through Thursday sit at similar highs with lows of 13-14°C. The silver lining: drier weather. Aside from a small chance of midweek showers, skies should clear in time for a sunny weekend.
If you're hoping the warmth returns soon, don't hold your breath. The two-week outlook doesn't show temperatures climbing back above 20°C until at least October 1. Longer-range modelling from the Old Farmer's Almanac backs that up, pointing to a cooler-than-normal September for southern Ontario — an average around 15°C, roughly a degree below the norm. October is expected to settle closer to seasonal averages at around 11°C.
The bigger wildcard is further out. The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that El Niño — the Pacific warming pattern that tends to shuffle global weather — is firmly established and intensifying into what forecasters are calling a very strong event. Models put the odds of it lasting through February at close to 100 per cent.
For Ontario, a strong El Niño usually means a cool autumn pattern early on, but that tends to break by December, delaying the arrival of real winter. In past strong El Niño years, Toronto's Decembers have run about 2.6°C warmer than average. Translation: expect a chilly stretch now, then a milder, later-starting winter than usual.
For travellers, this is a decent nudge to book a Toronto trip now rather than waiting. This weekend is one of the final chances to enjoy patios, island ferries and lakefront walks in genuine summer warmth before the city tips into sweater weather. If you're eyeing late fall instead, El Niño's track record suggests December could be a gentler time to visit than usual — fewer deep-freeze days, more walkable afternoons. Either way, pack layers: the swing from 21°C to overnight lows near 11°C happens fast this time of year.
