Costa Rica has long been one of Central America's demographic success stories, but the numbers coming out of San José tell a different story now. The country's fertility rate is estimated at just 1.12 children per woman in 2026 — well below the 1.20 experts had projected, and far under the 2.1 level a population needs to replace itself without immigration.
The raw birth figures are striking. In 2025, Costa Rica registered 48,414 births, the lowest total in a decade and roughly 24,000 fewer than in 2016. That's about a third fewer babies in just nine years. Projections had already pencilled in population decline around 2044; at this pace, that turning point could arrive earlier.
This isn't a blip. Researchers point to a stack of long-term social shifts: Costa Ricans are waiting longer to start families, choosing smaller families, or opting out of parenthood entirely. Housing costs, childcare expenses and job pressures all play a role, and more women are prioritising study, careers and personal goals before — or instead of — motherhood.
The effects are already visible on the ground. Rural communities are seeing school enrolment fall, which could mean consolidations or closures in villages with too few students. Universities will face smaller applicant pools, and employers — including the tourism sector, which relies heavily on young workers — may find hiring harder as the workforce thins. Meanwhile, the population is ageing fast: people 65 and older are projected to make up about 12% of the population in 2026, a share set to keep climbing. That puts growing pressure on the Costa Rican Social Security Fund and the pension system, since fewer working-age people will be supporting more retirees.
Immigration may become increasingly important to keeping the workforce stocked, and housing demand could shift too, as single people and couples without children need different homes than the large families of previous generations.
For travellers, none of this changes Costa Rica's appeal — the cloud forests, Pacific and Caribbean coasts, and wildlife aren't going anywhere. But it's useful context for anyone who visits regularly or dreams of longer stays. Expect to see demographic change ripple through everyday life, from rural villages with quieter schools to service industries competing for staff. Experts stress this isn't an immediate crisis but a major transition, and Costa Rica still has time to adapt by investing in education, employment and productivity. The pace, though, is faster than anyone predicted.
First reported by The Tico Times.
