International travel is still growing in 2026 — but barely. New figures from UN Tourism's World Tourism Barometer show arrivals up just 0.4% in the first half of the year, with around 690 million people crossing borders between January and June. That's a fraction of the 4% growth posted in 2025, when a record 1.52 billion trips were taken.

The trajectory within the half-year tells the story: arrivals rose 2% in the first quarter, then slipped 1% in the second. April and June each saw global declines of 3%, hit by the earlier Easter timing, conflict-related disruption and rising costs. UN Tourism had opened the year forecasting 3-4% growth; it now expects just 1-2% for the full year.

The Middle East has taken the heaviest hit, with arrivals down 22% in the first half — a sharp turnaround for a region that welcomed nearly 100 million visitors in 2025, 39% above pre-pandemic levels. Analysts at Tourism Economics had already warned in May that an early conflict resolution could still cost the region 23 million visitors and $34 billion in spending, rising to 38 million visitors and $56 billion if the conflict drags on.

The fallout reaches far beyond the region. Air routes through the Middle East carry huge volumes of Asia-Europe traffic, and the disruption has pushed up jet fuel prices worldwide — US airlines' fuel bill hit $6.5 billion in April, up 78% year-on-year. IATA has since slashed its 2026 airline profit forecast to $23 billion, down from $41 billion projected earlier and the $45 billion earned in 2025.

Yet the picture is far from uniformly gloomy. Africa led all regions with 4% growth, followed by Europe at 3% and the Americas at 2%. Europe also saw airport passenger traffic rise 2.6% despite the disruption. Asia and the Pacific managed only 1% growth and remain 11% below 2019 levels, with South-East Asia down 5% in June amid weak regional demand and higher fares.

For travellers, the most interesting shift is in where demand is going. With prices elevated and confidence shaky, people are choosing closer-to-home or better-value destinations. In Europe, that means interest is moving away from the usual Mediterranean hotspots: Czechia has become the continent's fastest-growing booked destination with bookings up 18% year-on-year, while Iceland, Denmark, Switzerland, Sweden, Ireland, Belgium and Norway are all seeing strong search growth. Climate is playing a role too — western Europe's June arrivals fell 6%, partly blamed on heatwaves.

The takeaway for anyone planning a trip this year: timing and flexibility matter more than usual. Fares are being shaped by fuel costs and rerouted flights, popular destinations may swelter in summer, and the best value is increasingly found in lesser-known cities and shoulder-season dates. UN Tourism's own message is that growth hasn't stopped — it's just become fragile, and the rest of 2026 depends heavily on geopolitics, oil prices and consumer confidence.